Investor Relations
results Q2 2023
investor & analyst presentation | 9 August 2023
Highlights Q2 - Very strong net profit of 870m
- Very strong net profit reflecting high NII and impairment releases as credit quality remains solid
- Continued strong NII, benefitting from the higher interest rate environment
- Clients continue to transfer cash to interest bearing accounts, overall deposit base stable
- Business momentum holding up for corporate lending and mortgages
- Underlying costs flat, expected costs for 2023 around 5.2bn reflecting lower SRF contribution
- No longer expect to reach 2024 cost target of 4.7bn as 2023 investments spill over into 2024, inflation is higher and reduction in AML costs is more gradual
- Update of financial targets and capital framework at Q4 results including potential share buyback
- Interim dividend has been set at EUR 0.62 per share
2
Progressing on our strategy execution
Customer experience
A personal bank in the
digital age, for the
resourceful and ambitious
Personal & Business Banking
- Piloting with private ChatGPT, summarising client calls and helps advisor with right product pages
- Florius best Dutch mortgage provider, best innovative service for intermediaries and best innovative service (Gouden Lotus)
- Social point programme, supporting local social initiatives, scaled up
Sustainability
Distinctive expertise in
supporting clients' transition
to sustainability
Wealth Management
- Branchification Neuflize finalised, simplifying our organization
- Low threshold Impact fund mandate brings impact investment to broad client group
- ESG + impact investments now 45% of our clients asset volume
Future proof bank
Enhance client service,
compliance and
efficiency
Corporate Banking
- Investment in ThreatFabric, an Online Fraud Detection solution
- Innovation Industries investment as 1st climate related fund investment
- Winddown CB non-core largely completed
3
Dutch economy resilient, housing market cooling down
Dutch economy remains resilient 1)
|
2022 |
2023e |
2024e |
||
|
Netherlands |
GDP (% yoy) |
4.5% |
0.7% |
1.0% |
|
Inflation (indexed % yoy) |
11.6% |
4.3% |
3.4% |
|
|
Unemployment rate (%) |
3.5% |
3.7% |
4.1% |
|
|
Government debt (% GDP) |
51% |
50% |
50% |
|
|
Eurozone |
GDP (% yoy) |
3.5% |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
Inflation (indexed % yoy) |
8.4% |
4.9% |
2.1% |
|
|
Unemployment rate (%) |
6.7% |
7.0% |
7.3% |
|
|
Government debt (% GDP) |
93% |
93% |
93% |
|
Stabilisation latest figures of some economic indicators
|
NL consumer spending (lhs) |
NL consumer confidence (rhs) |
||
|
20% |
NL adjusted PMI (see footnote) |
70 |
|
|
10% |
35 |
||
|
0% |
NA 2) |
||
|
0 |
|||
|
-10% |
-35 |
||
|
-20% |
-70 |
||
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
Dutch bankruptcies still historically low 2)
-
per quarter businesses & institutions 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000
500
Small house price corrections and less houses sold 3)
|
NL houses sold (lhs, #'000) |
NL house prices (rhs, 2015=100) |
|||
|
250 |
225 |
|||
|
200 |
150 |
|||
|
150 |
75 |
|
0 |
100 |
0 |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
'12 |
'13 |
'14 |
'15 |
'16 |
'17 |
'18 |
'19 |
'20 |
'21 |
'22 |
'23 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023e |
2024e |
- Source: ABN AMRO Group Economics forecast of 23 June 2023
- Source: Statistics Netherlands (CBS); Consumer spending % change vs previous year (only until April '23), consumer confidence seasonally adjusted
|
(end of period), adjusted PMI is Nevi NL Manufacturing PMI (end of period) and represents expansion if above 0 and contraction below 0 |
4 |
|
3) ABN AMRO Group Economics forecast 18 July 2023. House prices -5% 2023e and -3% 2024e; transaction volumes -5% 2023e and -2.5% 2024e |
Continued strong NII despite temporary decline in treasury result
NII remained strong 1)
EUR m
NII (excl. TLTRO & incidentals)
|
1,266 |
1,232 |
1,314 |
1,504
1,620
1,604
|
▪ Q2 deposit margins improved, competition main driver |
|
for saving deposit margins going forward |
|
▪ Savings rates have increased in May, June and again |
|
in August by 25bps to now 1.25% 2) |
|
▪ Q2 margins on lending products holding up as pricing |
|
catching up with higher rates |
|
▪ Treasury result expected to recover 3) and remains |
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
||
|
2022 |
2023 |
|
sensitive to higher interest rates going forward |
|
1) |
Excluding TLTRO in 2022 (Q1 & Q3: 44m, Q2: 41m, Q4: 60m) and incidental in 2022 (Q3: -82m) and 2023 (Q2: 18m) |
|
|
2) |
Savings coupon increased from 0 to 25bps on December 1, 2022; to 50bps on March 1, 2023; to 75bps on May 1, 2023 and to 100bps on June 1, 2023 |
5 |
|
3) |
Delta in treasury result is c.-50m vs Q1 |
|
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Disclaimer
ABN Amro Bank NV published this content on 09 August 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 09 August 2023 08:00:27 UTC.