Investor Relations
results Q4 2021
Investor & analyst presentation | 9 February 2022
Highlights Q4 2021, good result with net profit of 552m
- Good Q4 result supported by sale and lease back of head quarter and strong fees
- Economic recovery continued, corporate loan book for Bank core over 5bn higher versus Q3 2021
- NII supported by TLTRO benefit and high prepayment penalties, offset by continued pressure from negative rate environment and additional provision for revolving consumer credit
- Fee income increased, mainly driven by positive financial market developments combined with market volatility
- FY2021 costs in line with guidance at 5.3bn 1) despite increase in AML costs and handling costs for compensation scheme; cost savings on track
- Continued strong credit quality, FY2021 Cost of Risk in line with guidance at -7bps
- Very strong capital ratios with Basel III CET1 ratio of 16.3% (Basel IV c.16%)
- Final FY2021 dividend of 0.61 per share proposed and start of 500m share buyback programme
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1) Excluding AML settlement |
2 |
Consistent delivery in '21; continuing to operate from a position of strength
Delivered on our agenda in 2021
- Back to profit as Dutch economy recovered
- CIB non-corewind-down largely completed, well ahead of schedule
- AML investigation settled; good progress on remediation
- Good progress on strategy execution
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- Successful start of MoneYou mortgages
- E&E 1) concept launched in Germany & Belgium
- New SME payment packages introduced
- Digital and data capabilities strengthened
- Simplification organisational structure
- Resumed dividend payments
- Share buyback (SBB) announced
Looking ahead
- Continued pressure from low rates, NII expected to bottom out in H2 2023
- Strategy addressing impact of negative rates
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- Income diversification from growth in fee income
- Focus on cost discipline; reconfirm 2024 target <4.7bn
- Growth in segments where we can maintain scale
- De-riskedbalance sheet, new TTC CoR around 20 bps
- Putting into practice personal bank in digital age
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- Full range banking services available remote as of Q3
- Digital inclusivity; doubling number of financial coaches
- Continuous AML focus is our license to grow
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1) Enterprise & Entrepreneur |
3 |
ESG impact through lending and investments; updated targets
Products supporting clients in their transition
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Climate change |
▪ Energy savings check, sustainable mortgage |
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▪ Financing the energy transition |
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Circular economy |
▪ Since 2019 committed >EUR1.2bn on over 140 |
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circular economy deals |
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▪ Improve financial resilience (senior care |
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Social impact |
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programs, payment holidays) |
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▪ Improving inclusiveness of products and services |
Updated sustainability targets for 2024 1)
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Targets |
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2020 |
2021 |
2021 |
2024 |
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ESG & Impact Investments |
22% |
38% |
26% |
42% (35%) |
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Sustainable Mortgages |
23% |
25% |
22% |
34% (28%) |
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Sustainable CIB loans |
9% |
13% |
12% |
27% (25%) |
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Sustainable CB loans |
13% |
15% |
11% |
27% (27%) |
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Sustainable client loans & assets 2) |
20% |
27% |
21% |
36% (30%) |
- Good progress towards updated 2024 targets, with ESG client assets at 89bn at YE2021
- Based on ABN AMRO Sustainability Acceleration Standard (definitions on clients' sustainability policies, practice and governance)
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2) Overall target is calculated as the sum of sustainability client loans (excl. consumer lending) and sustainability client assets, divided by the sum of total |
4 |
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client loans (excl. consumer lending) and client assets (excl. cash). In brackets old 2024 targets are shown. |
Strong recovery Dutch economy, house prices continue to increase
Dutch economy remarkably resilient 1)
2020 2021e 2022e 2023e
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Netherlands GDP (% yoy) |
-3.8% 4.3% 2.8% |
2.7% |
- Dutch economy remained remarkably resilient reflecting healthy economic fundamentals & government support
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Inflation (indexed % yoy) |
1.1% |
2.6% |
3.5% |
1.9% |
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Unemployment rate (%) |
3.3% |
3.1% |
2.8% |
2.8% |
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Government debt (% GDP) |
55% |
57% |
56% |
55% |
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Eurozone GDP (% yoy) |
-6.5% |
5.1% |
3.7% |
2.6% |
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Inflation (indexed % yoy) |
0.3% |
2.6% |
2.5% |
1.3% |
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Unemployment rate (%) |
7.9% |
7.7% |
7.4% |
7.2% |
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Government debt (% GDP) |
99% |
102% |
100% |
99% |
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- Strong Dutch economic recovery in 2021. Omicron and inflation expected to weigh on GDP growth in 2022
- Bankruptcies historically low in 2021, expect to rise steadily as government support measures phase out
- House prices +12.5% 2022e, +5% 2023e 1)
- Transaction volumes -10% 2022e reflecting lack of supply, followed by a slight recovery of +5% 2023e 1)
Historically low Dutch bankruptcies 2)
- per month businesses & institutions 400
250
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100 |
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2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
House prices rise further while supply decreases 2)
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Houses sold (lhs, #'000) |
House prices (rhs, 2015=100) |
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250 |
300 |
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200 |
200 |
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150 |
100 |
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100 |
0 |
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2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022e |
2023e |
1) Source: ABN AMRO Group Economics forecast of 24 January 2022; house prices and transaction volume forecast 6 January 2022
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2) Source: CBS |
5 |
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ABN Amro Bank NV published this content on 09 February 2022 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 09 February 2022 06:25:32 UTC.